New Zealand Aluminium Smelters has struck a new deal with Meridian Energy which means the smelter will remain open until at least Decemeber 2024. We don’t yet know the prices that Rio Tinto has agreed with Meridian, but Forsyth Barr estimates that Rio will be paying a contract price of 3.5c/kWh. Compare that with large energy users across the country, who are paying over 11c/kWh.
Last week, the news pushed already elevated ASX energy futures higher. Customers leaving contracts on or around a raw energy price of 8.5c/kWh struck 3 years ago are now facing, on average, raw contract pricing of 13-14c/kWh — an increase of 65% or more.
Is pricing sustainable for large users?
ASX Energy Futures climb higher and higher
In July 2020, when the market was expecting a full exit from Tiwai by the end of 2021, pricing fell significantly. South Island consumers were especially fortunate — Total Utilities helped customers negotiate raw energy pricing around 6c/kWh. North Island pricing also fell from around 12c/kWh to 9c/kWh.
New Zealand’s large commercial businesses are paying a premium for the smelters continued electricity supply in the current electricity market. And it’s not just electricity pricing that has increased, but gas too, with prices moving from around $5.50/GJ to over $9/GJ in the last three years.
Transmission pricing hasn’t changed. Yet. But it is almost certain that Tiwai will see transmission costs reduce, while the rest of the country is left to pick up the upgrade bill when Manapouri gets connected to the Clutha Upper Waitaki network.
Additional energy and gas costs cannot just be absorbed by consumers, particularly in the primary and food production/storage sectors where energy-intensive operations exist. The cost of living will continue to inflate, while income increases will struggle to keep up.
Overcapacity of generation must be built between now and 2030, while an increase in gas-fired peaking plants is needed to ensure a secure supply.
Future path requires significant investment in new wind and solar generation
In the current market, there is no incentive for an oversupply of energy production. Instead, due to basic supply and demand principles, constrained generation allows producers to make tremendous profits.
In large part, the Government has ignored the 2019 report and instead focused on the proposed pumped hydro scheme at Lake Onslow. This multi-billion-dollar project won’t be commissioned in the short-term and is located well away from high energy demand areas. The government would gain faster traction if they subsidised microgeneration and battery storage.
Gas production is still a major and immediate concern, with New Zealand’s largest gas more or less 35% down on expected volumes. Remedial work and new drilling projects are unlikely to start until early 2022, so it’ll be some time before gas supplies return to “normal” levels.
Generators have various projects to increase renewables-based generation. These will not likely come into service until after 2024, though. A lack of clear market strategy means timing and development have been poorly managed. The “just” transition to renewables is underway, but who exactly is it “just” for?
A window into the future
On 31st January, 2021 He Pou a Rangi/Climate Change Commission released a 2021 draft advice for consultation report. This report delivers more focused advice that the government would be wise to follow to stand a chance of reaching our country’s zero emissions target.
The energy prices that businesses are paying now is a result of uncertainty and not having enough renewables-based generation to meet dry year demand when gas supplies are constrained. This is not sustainable.
From page 81 of the report: “Future electricity prices are uncertain due to a range of factors, such as the weather, gas availability, future infrastructure requirements and pricing structures.”
The report clearly shows that we need more energy generation, that we should accelerate and incentivise the move to electric vehicles, that we need to make the transition affordable and attractive to businesses and families, and that natural gas plays a role in helping us get there. And it asks if we should do what we can to retain and retrain the incredible talent that exists in the natural gas sector instead of losing them to offshore contracts.
Building more wind and solar generators is money and time well spent, as this will increase energy supply, and translate to lower energy prices. That’s why new renewables-based generation needs to be built and fast, otherwise energy pricing will only remain high and increase further as we decarbonise the economy.
As page 112 of the report so clearly puts it, “For consumers and industry to invest and convert to electrification, they need to have confidence that electricity will be available, affordable and reliable.”
What can you do?
The harsh reality is that the cost of energy is going up. Without significant new generation being commissioned and the ongoing gas supply issues, costs are unlikely to fall again in the next four years.
That’s why we recommend you review your pricing and go to market early, as prices are front end loaded. You could potentially get a better price well in advance of your contract end date and lock it in. Alternatively, having a second round is always an option closer to contract-end.
We’ve given a considered view of where pricing is heading in this blog, but it could be conservative. In any case, budget for a serious increase in costs.
If you want to mitigate rising costs, the best thing you can do is reduce the amount of energy you consume from the grid. You can achieve this by understanding what you consume and optimising your consumption and generating your energy onsite (through solar panels or similar renewable sources).
With increased energy pricing on the cards, now’s the time that you get significantly more bang for your buck when you invest in energy and carbon reduction projects. That’s why the team at Total Utilities are here to help you achieve energy efficiencies and, when you’re ready, guide you through the switch to solar and other renewable sources.
The retail price of energy for large commercial customers in New Zealand will remain elevated in 2020-21. So what are you going to do about it?
New Zealand’s large commercial market for electricity and natural gas has been on a roller coaster ride for the last 2 years, the likes of which have not been seen before.
There are numerous drivers that influence market movements. Fundamentally though it comes down to the balance between availability of supply and user demand.
Oil, gas, thermal and hydro
The Government’s decision to ban future offshore oil and gas drilling put an end date on New Zealand being able to meet all of its natural gas requirements. The closer we get to the end of current supply the higher the price will climb.
Supply issues with our largest field, Pohokura during 2018/19 and reduced gas production overall has more than doubled gas spot pricing from 2016/17.
In dry years, the electricity system relies on natural gas and coal to provide security of supply. This is for both base load and peaking generation.
With little to no new renewable base load generation planned in the immediate future, the market price is largely driven by the use of thermal based generation.
As consumers of electricity and natural gas, we have no control over the market. However here are a few prudent measures that can be taken to mitigate cost increases in a rising market.
Strike while the iron is hot
Electricity and Gas procurement should not be a once in a 2- or 3-year event. Leaving purchasing decisions to the last minute can have significant negative consequences.
You may only have limited options, having to accept what the market is offering or move to expensive default rates. If there are short term constraints in the market, then pricing may have been more cost effective 3-6 months ago.
Aligning your procurement strategy with a specialist energy consultant provides independent advice and a view of wider market considerations. This is particularly important when setting budgets for the following year.
Have I got a deal for you?
Incumbent retailers will at times be proactive in offering “deals”. However, this is usually from their view of the world and can be part of a defence strategy to sidestep customers reviewing the wider market.
In a rising market, we typically see a significant accordion effect. This is where the difference in prices offered can range more than 20%, even among the large generator retailers.
Without context, pre-emptive renewal offers can at times be viewed with suspicion. A specialist energy consultant can vet such offers quickly.
Understanding the market means pricing is checked against offers they are currently seeing. Advice can then be provided whether to accept the offer or go to market.
The mystic art of Power Factor
Often missed on large commercial invoices are power factor related penalty charges. These are billed by the electricity retailer on behalf of the local network distribution company.
Not all networks charge large commercial customers for poor power factor, but when they do the related charges can be avoided with correction equipment. (See: what is a power factor correction unit?)
There are a multitude of off the shelf solutions out there, however employing a specialist power factor company that designs solutions specific to requirements ensures you get the best bang for buck on your investment.
If correction equipment is already installed, make sure that this is added to your maintenance plan. If well looked after, correction units should last 10 years or more. They are susceptible to heat degradation. A quick check to make sure that air extraction fans on the units are work correctly and filters are kept clean can extend the life of the unit.
Rectifying power factor related issues can also help reduce peak KVA demand and associated costs if these are being billed by the local network company.
The secret life of kilowatts
Do you know how much energy your business uses when you are not there?
Energy monitoring combined with energy data analytics will help you identify energy wastage. Monitoring electricity use with real time energy analytics can also alert you to potential issues during operational hours.
This will allow you to act immediately rather than just seeing the impact on the monthly invoice the following month. With the rapid evolution of the internet of things, energy monitoring as a service is more cost effective than ever.
Are the good times over?
Unless there are structural changes in the market, Total Utilities does not see the retail price of energy for large commercial customers doing anything but remaining elevated (+/- 25% higher for electricity and +/- 45% for natural gas) compared to the 2013-2018 period.
A combination of dry weather, growth in the New Zealand population, general growth in usage and Government policy have put this in place.
Having an Energy Strategy that aligns with your business strategy and planning ahead, being proactive in minimising wastage and understanding where savings can be made will minimise the impact of rising prices.
Create a sustainable energy strategy, and build a competitive advantage with powerful energy insights that provide complete visibility of your energy footprint.
Now more than ever businesses globally are looking for wastage and holding utility costs to account by requiring detailed operational reports.
As the owner of your energy strategy, it is imperative that you have end-to-end visibility of your energy footprint. Obtaining this level of visibility will provide you with energy intelligence around consumption and performance of on-site assets. These energy insights will give your business the ability to:
Understand how energy is being used across your entire footprint
Identify processes and specific devices where energy is being wasted
Manage risks and opportunities in real-time to ensure performance of assets
Manage all your data in a single energy management system
Having a centralised view of your entire energy footprint and device-level data eliminates the time and complexity involved with managing energy data in multiple platforms. A single platform that integrates with other systems creates a holistic view of your energy infrastructure that can be used to inform a single, full report.
In addition, using a single platform to manage your energy data means you always know that you’re looking at real-time, accurate intelligence. This can help you make data-driven decisions about your energy strategy that are based on the most up-to-date energy data displayed in the energy management platform.
The granular level of intelligence provided by device-level data will provide you with a deeper understanding of your energy use and help to accurately form your energy strategy. This information can be used to identify ways to future-proof your strategy to:
Improve operational efficiency
Uncover growth opportunities
Unlock new revenue streams
Identify new energy technologies
Use Energy Insights data to improve operational efficiency
Data can help your business analyse capital equipment to identify inefficiencies and determine when equipment should be replaced or requires maintenance. By keeping equipment working efficiently and performing at its optimum level, you can avoid costly downtime and reduce business risk.
Use data to uncover growth opportunities
Better energy insights can free up resources to support growth initiatives, turning energy from a commodity cost to a value-adding resource. Growth opportunities can also be achieved when your strategy successfully lowers the costs associated with energy.
Use data to unlock new revenue streams
The information gathered through end-to-end visibility can help your business leverage its energy use, flexibility and existing assets. This opportunity unlocks new revenue streams for your business by allowing you to curtail energy use or sell surplus energy back to the grid through Demand Response (DR), demand management and asset optimisation.
Use data to identify new energy technologies
End-to-end visibility of your energy footprint can help to inform decisions on using new technologies such as solar and battery storage, back-up power generation, or cogeneration (also known as Combined Heat and Power or CHP) to help drive energy optimisation and improve resilience.
The visibility of your energy footprint will grow as you adopt new technologies, but by using a centralised system to holistically monitor and manage your data, this should not add any extra complexity. In fact, your energy management system can provide you with the data you need to justify your investments in on-site energy generation.
Why businesses need to choose the right platform and provider
It is imperative that businesses partner with a provider that has the right energy insight tools and a platform that collects and centralises granular, device-level data.
Working with Total Utilities, businesses can be sure that they’ll benefit from experience and expertise. We are the New Zealand providers of Centrica’s Energy Insight solution and integrated energy management platform, PowerRadar®. These tools are generating new opportunities across all types of industry, giving organisations the ability to manage real-time, device-level energy intelligence in a single, holistic view.
Contact our experts to find out how we can help you obtain real-time visibility of your energy performance and develop a strategy that turns your energy into a competitive asset.
Your corporate sustainability targets might be in for a shock!
Prior to Christmas, the Government announced a raft of proposed changes to the emissions trading scheme (ETS) to rapidly decarbonise the economy.
This included lifting the ETS price cap from $25/tonne to $50/tonne and creating a market floor of $20/tonne.
If we take natural gas as an example, where at $25/tonne the ETS is priced at $1.37, at the market cap of $50/tonne this would increase the cost of the ETS to end users by $1.37/GJ (0.49c/kWh). With current raw gas pricing hovering around $9/GJ for large industrial users this could make raw gas plus ETS $11.74/GJ (4.23c/kWh).
We spend a lot of time looking at commercial electricity and energy management and that’s really something to notice! If your corporate sustainability journey does not include electricity or energy efficiency milestones, now is the time.
In addition to this, a ban on new coal-fired boilers for low and medium temperature heating has been mooted. With all coal boilers used for low temperature activities to be phased out by 2030. Coal boilers would still be allowed for high temperatures of above 300 degrees celsius.
The Interim Climate Commission estimates that switching coal boilers away to electricity or biomass at scale becomes economic when ETS costs are in the range of $60-$120/tonne.
Now more than ever businesses need to start planning their sustainability journey. At Total Utilities we are here to help.
The following was originally posted on the Centrica Business Solutions website and is reprinted with permission.
With environmental and economic sustainability at the heart of the corporate agenda, organizations face a range of risks if they fail to make progress
All organizations must pay close attention to risk. From financial viability to cyber attacks, it’s vital to understand and prepare for the forces that can disrupt the market and derail long-term sustainability – so businesses can survive in a fast-changing world.
Of all the risks that could affect a business’s long-term future, climate change is becoming one of the most urgent and complex. The United Nations warns that changing climate is disrupting national economies – and that accelerated action is needed to reduce emissions.
I want to hear about how we are going to stop the increase in emissions by 2020, and dramatically reduce emissions to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century
António Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General
Many organizations are already exploring what they can do to make a difference. They know that significant organizational, reputational and financial benefits can be gained by improving their environmental credentials. That said, our Distributed Energy Future Trends report found most businesses are investing in initiatives that we’d consider to be ‘low-hanging fruit’. Few organizations are implementing the most sophisticated technological innovations that could really accelerate their journey to net zero, such as smart energy management and on-site generation. In fact, just 18% of organizations see energy as an asset to be managed, in order to generate competitive advantage.
It’s important that organizations consider the strategic benefits of implementing the latest sustainable energy innovations. But perhaps even more importantly, they also need to recognize the risks they face if they don’t implement these innovations. Here are a few of the top concerns:
Energy security
As the world moves to low-carbon energy sources, making sure that you have continuity of supply is vital. Business leaders acknowledge the importance of energy resilience, which is why they rank energy security as being a top-three risk to their operations.
It’s important to have a detailed energy strategy, one that puts targets around energy resilience. Currently, only half of businesses that we’d consider to be ‘sustainable’ have an energy strategy that details how they will become a low-carbon organization. With other businesses, the figure falls to just 24%. Clearly, there is scope for businesses to push ahead in this area.
Having a plan is just the first step, though. It’s also important to consider implementing sustainable energy innovations, which can help to reduce reliance on the grid and provide additional security in the event of a power failure. Without harnessing the latest innovations, organizations may not be safeguarding themselves as fully as they could against the catastrophic consequences of power loss.
Innovation is good for business
In today’s economy, no company can afford to stand still. It’s important to keep moving forward and improve the products and services you deliver to your customers. Continuous innovation is good for business and often creates new opportunities that can enhance the way your business operates.
This is certainly true of sustainable energy innovations. From artificial intelligence to digitalized energy management solutions – low-carbon technologies can create new opportunities for businesses to monetize their power assets and improve their brand reputation. What’s more, organizations that look at their strategy anew and consider how they can join their energy technologies together can maximize their commercial benefits and return on investment. It’s clear that organizations who embrace sustainable energy innovations can gain competitive advantage – and those businesses that fail to harness these new opportunities risk being left behind.
Preparing for a more digital world
Organizations that aggressively pursue digitalization are expected to grow the most in the next five years. But companies that are truly future-focused don’t just introduce new digital platforms and technologies on a whim – they consider their wider implications, including the energy requirements of each digitalization initiative.
In our transformed world, new strategies are required to understand precisely where, how and when energy is being used across your organization. By monitoring, managing and aggregating all available energy assets, including energy demand and usage, organizations can ensure they generate and consume power in the most efficient way.
The latest sustainable energy innovations can support this initiative by providing organizations with the insight they need to make more intelligent decisions about their energy strategy in a digital world. But organizations that don’t embrace these innovations may lack these insights and could run the risk of wasting energy and money. And this may snowball, as more and more digital technologies are embraced.
Futureproofing your operations
Businesses that clearly define their energy strategy and invest in the latest sustainable energy innovations will find themselves in the best position to meet their environmental targets, gain competitive advantage, and futureproof their operations. Companies that do not embrace the latest energy technologies may find themselves at a disadvantage in a competitive market.
With businesses maturing at different paces, it will take strategic planning to accelerate environmental and sustainability ambitions. Contact Total Utilities to see how we can help you invest in sustainable energy innovations that will solve business challenges and deliver tangible results.
Research shows that using low-carbon energy solutions can improve your reputation – helping make the case for sustainable energy innovation.
Deloitte recently published The Global Millennial Survey. This reinforced a number of other surveys that concluded that brands with a strong corporate social responsibly and sustainability plan will attract a higher caliber pool of prospective employees and a large range of engaged customers.
42% of those surveyed stated that they would start and or deepen a relationship with business who has products/services that positively impact the environment/society whereas 38% said they would cease or reduce their relationship with businesses who has products that negatively impacted the environment/society.
In business, it’s often said that reputation is slowly built, but quickly lost. That’s why, as a successful company, it’s vital to take a strategic view of your brand – to avoid the damage that can result from being on the wrong side of fast-moving public debates.
The below was recently posted by Centrica Business Solutions and is republished with permission.
Globally, there are few issues being currently debated more than the environment and climate change. In response, many organizations are looking to implement technical low-carbon energy innovations – including solar power or electric vehicles – as well as less tangible innovations, such as reshaping business strategies to more closely reflect environmental concerns.
When you’re considering investing in any of these approaches, it’s vital to understand the wider implications they may have on your business – both positive and negative.
In particular, it’s clear they can have a significant impact on how your brand is perceived by customers and shareholders. Our recent report, Distributed Energy Future Trends, shows that decision-makers recognize that low-carbon energy solutions result in reputational benefits for businesses.
According to our research, as many as 30% of companies we surveyed say that investing in energy technology results directly in a better company reputation – up from 24% in 2017. That’s a big rise in just two years and shows that energy technology, an increase in environmental responsibilities as an organizational priority, and brand perception are closely linked.
Strategy linked to brand
In the past year alone, 36% of the businesses we surveyed changed their brand position to be more environmentally friendly. This shows they understand the importance of demonstrating sustainability credentials.
Of course, to be effective in the long term, any change in brand positioning should be genuine. Customers, employees, commentators and regulators are all rightly suspicious of brands making unsubstantiated or misleading claims about their environmental friendliness, and their perception of your brand may be different from the crafted positions you take.
This means that, ideally, the drive toward sustainability should be strategic – with a combination of economic and environmental drivers the focus for success. Our survey shows that 86% of companies think ‘sustainability’ has both economic and environmental dimensions. It’s clear that organizations cannot simply talk about the importance of environmental responsibility – their words need to be backed up by clear and decisive action.
There are signs that this is happening. In fact, social and environmental responsibility is steadily rising up the strategic corporate agenda, and our research found that the only two factors are considered more important: efficiency and financial performance. What’s more, the fourth most important item on the corporate agenda was reported to be compliance with legislation and regulation – which is, in itself, a critical part of reputation management.
Practical impacts on stakeholders
There are a wide number of ways in which sustainable energy innovations can enhance your brand perception, and these are largely dependent on the strategy you opt for.
Invest in sustainable transportation technologies, such as workplace charging points and an electric vehicle fleet, and this could start to have positive impacts not only on employees who use them, but on the local community too. Already, half of fleet owners have at least one electric or hybrid vehicle, our research shows.
Solar technologies, too, can be a visible demonstration of your environmental commitment, and can combine with battery storage for economic and resiliency benefits too. Rather than relying on traditional energy sources, you’re able to generate your own energy onsite, store this generated energy in a battery for use during times of high grid demand or grid interruptions, and may even increase profitability by reducing expenses.
Innovative energy technologies can improve brand perceptions in indirect ways, as well. According to our research, the issue of energy security and resilience is now a top four risk for companies. It’s easy to see how a power failure at a critical site or data center could cause damage to your brand. Yet solutions such as battery storage and backup generators could mitigate these issues as part of a sustainable energy strategy. This will keep you ‘always on’ and safeguarded from commercial, regulatory and market risks.
Organizations with strong future growth prospects are those that have a clear strategy for how energy can contribute to their company values. In fact, one-third of organizations who expect their annual revenue to grow by over 20% in the next five years have made a clear link between sustainable energy use and their brand image and company values.
Find out more about how Total Utilities can help you invest in sustainable energy innovations that can have a positive impact on your organisational competitiveness, environmental credentials, brand perception, and carbon emissions.
