New Zealand’s gas market is entering a period of structural change. PwC’s 2026 Gas Supply and Demand Study, prepared for the Gas Industry Company, highlights a future where indigenous gas supply continues to decline, major fields reach end‑of‑life, and commercial and industrial (C&I) customers face increasing uncertainty.
For businesses that rely on gas for process heat, manufacturing, food production, or backup generation, the implications are significant — and planning ahead is essential.
The State of the Gas Market: Key Findings from the PwC Study
1. Domestic gas supply is declining faster than expected
New Zealand’s indigenous gas production has fallen to levels not seen in decades. Major fields are maturing, and by 2035 domestic supply could halve again. This creates structural scarcity and increases exposure to supply shocks.
2. Without LNG, the market becomes extremely tight
Gas demand must fall sharply by 2035
Industrial users face potential forced fuel switching
Electricity prices become more volatile, especially in dry years
3. LNG imports from 2028 improve stability — but don’t eliminate risk
If LNG is introduced:
Prices become more stable
Electricity security improves
Industrial operations remain more viable
However, LNG still exposes New Zealand to global commodity markets, and the study makes it clear that significant electrification or alternative fuels will still be required from the late 2020s onward.
4. The 2030s will be a crunch period
Even with LNG, domestic supply continues to decline. Any delays in LNG infrastructure or new supply sources increase risk for C&I customers.
What This Means for Commercial & Industrial Energy Users
1. Expect higher and more volatile gas prices
Tight supply and declining production create upward pressure on pricing. Dry years will amplify volatility.
2. Contract availability will shrink
Retailers may:
Shorten pricing validity windows
Reduce willingness to quote
Prioritise large or strategic customers
Require longer‑term commitments
3. Forced switching is a real possibility
Industries relying on gas for process heat may face:
Mandatory curtailment
Loss of supply if fields decline faster than forecast
Higher costs if switching is unplanned
4. Decarbonisation pressure will intensify
Even with LNG, the study is clear: New Zealand must electrify or adopt alternative fuels at scale.
Key Recommendations for Total Utilities Clients
1. Secure long‑term gas contracts where possible
For businesses that must remain on gas in the medium term:
Lock in multi‑year supply agreements
Prioritise retailers with strong upstream positions
Consider hedging strategies
Avoid exposure to short‑term or spot‑driven pricing
2. Begin evaluating alternative fuels now
Depending on your process heat requirements, viable options include:
Electric boilers or industrial heat pumps
Biomass or wood pellets
Renewable LPG or bio‑LPG
Hydrogen‑ready equipment
Thermal storage solutions
3. Stress‑test your energy strategy
Consider:
What happens if gas supply is curtailed for 30–90 days
The impact of a dry‑year price spike
The risk of a retailer declining to renew your contract
The cost difference between proactive vs reactive fuel switching
4. Integrate energy security into long‑term planning
Businesses should incorporate:
Scenario modelling
Capex planning for alternative fuels
Electrification roadmaps
Carbon reduction pathways
Contingency planning for supply interruptions
How Total Utilities Can Help
1. Gas procurement and long‑term contract negotiation
We work with all major gas supplies, helping you secure competitive, reliable supply in a tightening market. Over the last few months we have been securing contracts of up to 5 years and while this does not guarantee gas supply, it does provide long term gas pricing security.
2. Ongoing market intelligence
We continuously monitor:
Gas supply conditions
Retailer behaviour
LNG developments
Electricity market dynamics
Policy and regulatory changes
3. Decarbonisation and feasibility studies
Our technical partners can assist your business build practical, staged plans that balance cost, operational requirements, carbon reduction, technology readiness, and risk management. From engineering assessments to procurement and implementation, they guide you through the entire transition process.
Final Thoughts
The PwC study is a clear signal: New Zealand’s gas market is tightening, and C&I customers must prepare for a future where gas is more expensive, less available, and increasingly uncertain.
Whether your business intends to stay on gas for the medium term or transition away from it, the decisions you make in the next 12–24 months will shape your resilience and competitiveness through the 2030s.
Total Utilities is here to help you navigate that journey with clarity, confidence, and data‑driven strategy.
Since 2008, Total Utilities has been a trusted energy and procurement partner to Hall’s Group, one of New Zealand’s largest cold chain logistics providers. In 2025, this longstanding partnership reached a major milestone when Total Utilities supported Hall’s adoption of Lodestone Energy’s virtual solar model—an innovative renewable electricity solution designed to reduce emissions, stabilise long-term energy costs, and future-proof the company’s nationwide operations.
Client Background
Hall’s Group, owned by the Talley’s Group, operates a significant refrigerated transport and cold storage network across New Zealand. Its footprint includes:
Eight cold storage facilities
Nine logistics depots across both islands
A fleet of more than 640 specialised vehicles
Over 700 employees
With major hubs in Tauranga, Napier, Wellington, Christchurch, and Invercargill, Hall’s plays a critical role in maintaining the country’s food supply chain. Its leadership team has a clear long-term strategy: build a more sustainable, cost-efficient logistics network that aligns with customer expectations for low-carbon supply chains.
The Challenge
Hall’s energy demand is both high and mission critical, driven by continuous refrigeration loads across its facilities and vehicle network. The business sought a solution that could:
Reduce exposure to volatile electricity prices
Support its sustainability and emissions reduction commitments
Provide a robust financial pathway for long-term energy planning
Avoid operational disruption
Given the scale of Hall’s network and its continuous power needs, any solution needed to be reliable, future-oriented, and backed by strong analytical validation.
Total Utilities’ Approach
Total Utilities worked closely with Hall’s executive leadership to design and test a comprehensive financial and strategic business case for adopting Lodestone Energy’s virtual solar model.
Our work included:
1. Long-Term Pricing and Risk Analysis
We modelled long-term electricity cost trajectories and compared renewable supply scenarios against traditional procurement models. This analysis highlighted the pricing stability and hedging benefits of Lodestone’s solar-backed supply.
2. Security and Reliability Assessment
We assessed the operational implications of integrating certified renewable electricity into Hall’s distributed cold chain network, ensuring no compromise to 24/7 refrigeration requirements.
3. Alignment with Sustainability Strategy
We evaluated the emissions reduction benefits in the context of Hall’s wider decarbonisation roadmap and customer-driven expectations for climate-aligned logistics partners.
4. Executive Confidence Building
By presenting evidence-based insights, scenario modelling, and risk mitigation pathways, Total Utilities enabled Hall’s leadership to confidently proceed with a progressive, sector-leading energy purchasing strategy.
The Solution: Lodestone’s Virtual Solar Model
Hall’s entered into a long-term renewable electricity supply agreement with Lodestone Energy, supported by Total Utilities’ commercial and strategic advisory. Lodestone will supply Hall’s through its expanding portfolio of utility-scale solar assets, including:
The newly commissioned Whitianga solar farm
The Clandeboye development under construction
An additional soon-to-be-announced solar site
The agreement enables Hall’s to offset the electricity used across its national operations with fully certified renewable energy, ensuring long-term cost stability and meaningful emissions reduction.
Impact
For Hall’s Group
Stabilised long-term energy costs through price-certain renewable supply
Strengthened reputation as a forward-thinking logistics provider
Future-aligned energy strategy supporting nationwide growth
Chief Executive Gareth McFarlane described the agreement as a natural evolution of Hall’s long-term strategy to build a more sustainable and cost-efficient network—one that “genuinely makes a difference” for both the company and its customers.
For New Zealand’s Renewable Energy Landscape
Hall’s joins a group of major organisations adopting Lodestone’s model, alongside companies such as The Warehouse Group and Ingham’s. This contributes to a pipeline of more than 1,000 GWh of annual solar generation, accelerating access to affordable, low-carbon electricity across the country.
A Strengthened Partnership
For over 15 years, Total Utilities has supported Hall’s with strategic energy procurement and advisory services. This latest project underscores the value of a collaborative, long-term partnership built on trust, shared vision, and a commitment to innovation.
By guiding Hall’s through a rigorous assessment and implementation process, Total Utilities helped the organisation confidently transition to a renewable energy solution that supports both commercial outcomes and New Zealand’s wider low-emissions future.
Solar Smarts: How Kiwi Businesses Are Winning with Sunshine
Overview
Total Utilities’ Solar Feasibility Review and Supplier Engagement initiative is designed to help businesses evaluate the technical, financial, and environmental benefits of solar energy. By leveraging proposals from trusted SEANZ-approved providers, we deliver clear, data-driven insights and supplier options tailored to your energy usage profile and sustainability goals.
Our Process
Comprehensive Feasibility Review
Technical Assessment: Analyse your site’s solar potential, roof structure, and energy consumption patterns.
Financial Modelling: Calculate projected savings, ROI, and payback periods.
Environmental Impact: Estimate carbon emission reductions and ESG alignment.
Total Utilities has assessed proposals covering over 4MW of solar capacity, generating $1 million in annual energy cost savings with an average ROI of under 6.5 years.
Recent Projects
Hamilton High School
System: 167kW rooftop
Savings: $50k/year
CO₂ Reduction: 25 tonnes/year
ROI: 6.3 years
Financing: SmartEase – cashflow positive from day one
A key advantage Total Utilities brings to solar feasibility projects is our deep knowledge of energy procurement and market dynamics. By analysing current wholesale and retail electricity market conditions, we forecast future energy prices and establish a robust cost baseline. This ensures solar designs are evaluated against realistic, forward-looking energy cost scenarios rather than static or outdated assumptions.
Why This Matters:
Consistent Comparison: Solar proposals are assessed on the same financial basis, eliminating solar company bias or straight line price escalations that are not realistic. Risk Mitigation: Forecasting helps businesses understand potential exposure to rising power costs and quantify the value of solar as a hedge. Particularly useful if your business will soon end an energy supply contract. Data-Driven Decisions: Our procurement insights provide confidence that projected savings and ROI reflect actual market trends.
By integrating these forecasts into our financial modelling, we deliver a comprehensive view of both short-term and long-term benefits, ensuring your solar investment aligns with your business strategy and energy risk profile.
Total Utilities, as your trusted advisor, can source a tailored solar design that aligns with your energy profile and sustainability objectives. Contact us today to start your Solar Feasibility Review and unlock long-term savings and environmental benefits.
For over 25 years, Total Utilities has been the leading independent electricity and gas broker for schools throughout New Zealand. We work with schools of all sizes – from small rural schools to some of the largest in the country – ensuring they secure competitive energy contracts and maintain financial stability.
Challenge: Rising Energy Costs
With volatile market conditions and significant shifts in electricity and gas prices, schools face increasing pressure on their operating budgets. Accurate budgeting and competitive energy procurement can make a massive difference, freeing up funds for education rather than utilities.
Success Stories
Auckland Primary School – Electricity Cost Increase Mitigated
An Auckland primary school with a roll of just over 500 students faced an electricity cost increase of 24%. They turned to Total Utilities for assistance. Through our competitive market tender process, we secured a new electricity contract that reduced the increase to 10% and provided longer-term price security.
Auckland Intermediate School – Significant Savings Achieved
An Auckland intermediate school with more than 1,000 students went to market early to take advantage of favourable conditions. Their incumbent retailer’s renewal offer represented a 43% increase compared to current invoiced prices. Total Utilities delivered a new contract that was $45,000 cheaper over three years than the renewal offer.
Waikato High School – Gas Contract Savings
A Waikato high school with 700 students has partnered with Total Utilities for nearly 15 years. When their natural gas contract came up for renewal, they were concerned about the impact of declining gas supplies in New Zealand. Once again, Total Utilities delivered – sourcing a new contract that was $56,000 cheaper over two years than the incumbent retailer’s offer.
Our Approach
At Total Utilities, we believe that securing competitive energy prices for schools frees up budget that can be redirected towards our children’s learning rather than covering operational costs. We also provide annual budgetary advice that accounts for changes in transmission and distribution costs, as well as fluctuations in energy contract prices within a budget year. In a rising market, this is critical for setting accurate budgets.
Partner with Total Utilities
If your school is facing rising energy costs or wants to plan ahead, contact-us/talk to us today. We’ll help you navigate the market and secure the best possible outcomes for your budget.
A prominent educational institution in the Waikato operates a large campus with boarding facilities, relying heavily on natural gas for heating and hot water. Energy costs represent a significant portion of its operating budget, making cost control a priority.
The Challenge
As the school’s existing gas contract approached renewal, the incumbent supplier presented a renewal offer. While straightforward, the proposed rates were substantially higher than current market prices. Accepting the offer would have locked the school into two more years of inflated costs, putting pressure on budgets that could otherwise support educational programs.
The school needed:
A cost-effective solution without sacrificing service quality.
A smooth transition with minimal administrative burden.
Confidence that the new contract would remain competitive over time.
The Solution
Total Utilities conducted a comprehensive review of the school’s gas usage and current contract terms. Leveraging market expertise and supplier relationships, the team:
Benchmarked the incumbent’s renewal offer against competitive market rates.
Ran a competitive tender process with multiple suppliers.
Negotiated favorable terms and managed the transition seamlessly.
The Outcome
The new gas supply contract delivered $57,000 in savings over two years compared to the incumbent’s renewal offer. Additional benefits included:
Transparent pricing and improved contract terms
Budget certainty with locked-in competitive rates
Confidence in long-term cost control
Key Insights
Benchmarking renewal offers can uncover significant savings.
Competitive tendering drives better pricing and terms.
Expert procurement support ensures compliance and reduces risk.
“Total Utilities made the process simple and delivered real savings. Their expertise gave us confidence that we were getting the best deal.” – School Business Manager
How Total Utilities Can Help Your Business
Don’t let rising energy costs eat into your bottom line. At Total Utilities, we help Kiwi businesses lock in the most competitive natural gas rates available. Our expert team keeps an eye on market trends, negotiates on your behalf, and makes sure you get the best deal—saving you time and money.
Take control of your energy costs today.
👉 Get in touch with Total Utilities now and start optimising your natural gas pricing to future-proof your business.
