The deployment of grid‐connected photovoltaic (solar PV) systems continues to grow at an impressive rate. In 2018, there was a 30% increase in systems implemented and it continues to move forward.
Most of this growth involves residential systems, which have an 80% share of the connected capacity in NZ.
Where’s the growth in commercial solar pv systems? Why are the industrial and commercial sectors lagging behind?
The following article was written by Perry Hutchinson, who holds a Master of Engineering Studies in Renewable Energy Systems and has 30+ years of experience designing and implementing industrial electrical systems.
One benefit drives decisions about solar PV for industrial/commercial use…
Commercial Solar Power System Cost
The New Zealand Smart Grid Forum identified that although residential consumers consider a range of potential benefits ‐ such as energy independence, environmental impact and a desire to participate in the technology ‐ sound economics is what drives industrial and commercial consumers.
So the challenge in photovoltaic design is to present solar as a viable business investment in New Zealand, even though we lack the government subsidies and generous feed‐in tariffs enjoyed in many other countries.
What is a feed‐in tariff?
Feed‐in tariffs (FIT) offer you a defined payment for the energy you feed into the grid from your solar PV system. In New Zealand, this can be as low as $0.04/kWh.
When generous feed‐in tariffs are available, the key constraint to system size is essentially the available space for the PV array; for viable projects, the bigger you build it, the greater the return.
However, having low feed‐in tariffs changes the whole approach to system design. There is a tipping point where increased size (and increased investment) actually results in diminishing returns.
Forget feed‐in tariffs. Focus on offsetting electricity costs
The viability of a PV system (photovoltaic system) with low feed‐in tariffs depends on offsetting electricity cost. And offsetting electricity cost depends on discovering the optimal level of self‐consumption.
There is a tipping point for self‐consumption with on‐grid PV systems. This is the maximum size of the system where we still achieve 100% self‐consumption. Building the system larger than this results in some of the PV generation being fed back to the grid and therefore, self‐consumption starts to fall.
Generation Profile for commercial solar power systems
But with the generation profile changing ‐ not only seasonally, but also daily and hourly ‐ what is this optimal level of self‐consumption? A system size maximised for 100% self‐ consumption in summer will fall short of that in winter. Conversely, a system size maximised for winter will over‐generate in the summer (and lower self‐consumption as surplus is fed back to the grid).
Load Profile for commercial solar power systems
In addition to this, load profile must also be considered. What if the load is biased towards the morning or biased towards the afternoon? This could impact the optimal direction you orient the array (the azimuth). For example, a more westerly orientation may be better for load profiles with an afternoon bias.
Tariff Structures for commercial solar power systems
Tariff structures could have a similar effect. We have worked with clients with quite complex tariff structures that could influence array configuration. For example, high morning tariffs could mean a more easterly orientation is better.
Obviously, each situation is unique and requires something more than an “out of the box” solution due to the complex interplay between these constantly changing variables – the solar resource, load profile and tariff structure.
Our approach to getting Solar Power right
Traditionally, a project’s net present value (NPV) is used to evaluate and prioritise projects. NPV takes into account the time value of net cashflows over the life of a project by applying a discount rate.
But rather than treating this as an “endpoint” calculation, at Pacific Energy we use NPV to optimise the PV design.
We model a system on an hourly basis over a year using NIWA weather data, the tariff structure and load profile from the time‐of‐use meter as the key inputs. The model then finds the optimal combination of size, tilt and azimuth that maximises the NPV of the project over its 25‐year life.
The maximised NPV reflects the optimal level of self‐consumption for the system which in our experience can be anywhere between 85 – 95% on an annual basis. This provides the starting point for more detailed design to be undertaken.
For solar projects, Total Utilities partners with Pacific Energy whose focus is on bringing sustainable energy projects to life.
By combining sharp economic analysis with a deep understanding of industrial power systems, they design and specify viable and pragmatic solutions that optimise energy use and reduce carbon footprint. They are experts in system analysis and provide unbiased, independent advice for investment decisions.
The retail price of energy for large commercial customers in New Zealand will remain elevated in 2020-21. So what are you going to do about it?
New Zealand’s large commercial market for electricity and natural gas has been on a roller coaster ride for the last 2 years, the likes of which have not been seen before.
There are numerous drivers that influence market movements. Fundamentally though it comes down to the balance between availability of supply and user demand.
Oil, gas, thermal and hydro
The Government’s decision to ban future offshore oil and gas drilling put an end date on New Zealand being able to meet all of its natural gas requirements. The closer we get to the end of current supply the higher the price will climb.
Supply issues with our largest field, Pohokura during 2018/19 and reduced gas production overall has more than doubled gas spot pricing from 2016/17.
In dry years, the electricity system relies on natural gas and coal to provide security of supply. This is for both base load and peaking generation.
With little to no new renewable base load generation planned in the immediate future, the market price is largely driven by the use of thermal based generation.
As consumers of electricity and natural gas, we have no control over the market. However here are a few prudent measures that can be taken to mitigate cost increases in a rising market.
Strike while the iron is hot
Electricity and Gas procurement should not be a once in a 2- or 3-year event. Leaving purchasing decisions to the last minute can have significant negative consequences.
You may only have limited options, having to accept what the market is offering or move to expensive default rates. If there are short term constraints in the market, then pricing may have been more cost effective 3-6 months ago.
Aligning your procurement strategy with a specialist energy consultant provides independent advice and a view of wider market considerations. This is particularly important when setting budgets for the following year.
Have I got a deal for you?
Incumbent retailers will at times be proactive in offering “deals”. However, this is usually from their view of the world and can be part of a defence strategy to sidestep customers reviewing the wider market.
In a rising market, we typically see a significant accordion effect. This is where the difference in prices offered can range more than 20%, even among the large generator retailers.
Without context, pre-emptive renewal offers can at times be viewed with suspicion. A specialist energy consultant can vet such offers quickly.
Understanding the market means pricing is checked against offers they are currently seeing. Advice can then be provided whether to accept the offer or go to market.
The mystic art of Power Factor
Often missed on large commercial invoices are power factor related penalty charges. These are billed by the electricity retailer on behalf of the local network distribution company.
Not all networks charge large commercial customers for poor power factor, but when they do the related charges can be avoided with correction equipment. (See: what is a power factor correction unit?)
There are a multitude of off the shelf solutions out there, however employing a specialist power factor company that designs solutions specific to requirements ensures you get the best bang for buck on your investment.
If correction equipment is already installed, make sure that this is added to your maintenance plan. If well looked after, correction units should last 10 years or more. They are susceptible to heat degradation. A quick check to make sure that air extraction fans on the units are work correctly and filters are kept clean can extend the life of the unit.
Rectifying power factor related issues can also help reduce peak KVA demand and associated costs if these are being billed by the local network company.
The secret life of kilowatts
Do you know how much energy your business uses when you are not there?
Energy monitoring combined with energy data analytics will help you identify energy wastage. Monitoring electricity use with real time energy analytics can also alert you to potential issues during operational hours.
This will allow you to act immediately rather than just seeing the impact on the monthly invoice the following month. With the rapid evolution of the internet of things, energy monitoring as a service is more cost effective than ever.
Are the good times over?
Unless there are structural changes in the market, Total Utilities does not see the retail price of energy for large commercial customers doing anything but remaining elevated (+/- 25% higher for electricity and +/- 45% for natural gas) compared to the 2013-2018 period.
A combination of dry weather, growth in the New Zealand population, general growth in usage and Government policy have put this in place.
Having an Energy Strategy that aligns with your business strategy and planning ahead, being proactive in minimising wastage and understanding where savings can be made will minimise the impact of rising prices.
This post follows on from Are you OK? which you might like to read as well.
Covid-19 Confessions
What has occurred to me is just how anxious so many of us have become during Covid-19 lockdown. Simple things like supermarket shopping and big things like keeping business and personal finances on track have all become causes for concern.
A friend admitted to reading his young son’s online homework recently. It was a short essay on life in a bubble. “Dad is getting cross a lot” and “Mum’s acting weird sometimes” leapt off the page. He is a good, kind man and has a loving family. Trouble is, he is no more immune to the stress of this lockdown than any of us.
My beloved and I shared some tears on Saturday. We haven’t seen our adult kids or grandchildren in the flesh for a month! We are a touchy-feely family and the lack of their warm embraces has left us feeling empty.
My experience with anxiety last year does not give me any great right to speak into your lives. I can but share my insights and hope that you gain something from them.
Living in a bubble and yet finding joy
Using tools helps
The “cure” for my high levels of anxiety last year was a combination of admitting to myself and those close to me that I was struggling and acquiring some practical coping skills.
Learning some mindfulness skills and breathing exercises gave me something to fall back on when I found myself chewing on issues or repeatedly waking up in the night and unable to get back to sleep.
www.headspace.com is just one of several applications available that offer training and reminders on how and when to relax and be present in the moment.
A walk each day is an easy answer and yet hard to do when the funk descends. The good news for me is that the dog won’t say no until she gets her daily exercise.
Replace empty chat with real conversations
I have found out so much about my beloved in these last days and she about me. I won’t share the detail but fair to say that she is even more exciting and amazing and wonderful than I already knew.
Zoom can’t replace a hug
My colleague Richard is old school. I, on the other hand, come from the hippy school of peace and love. With that comes uncomfortable (for Richard) embraces when I call into the office and insist on a hug.
We meet every morning for half an hour using Teams and it is great to hear from him, but I do miss making him hug me. Hug the ones you love. It might be just what they need that day.
Meet friends and colleagues regularly
We have an online meal with friends or family several times a week now. It is breakfast with our daughter in Berlin or coffee after Church with a couple who share our spiritual journey. It is a candlelit dinner over a Cote du Rhone with our travel buddies. Tomorrow Euan from work is hosting an online quiz using a cool tool called Kahoot! All these give us connection, a laugh or two and with luck a chance to relax a little.
Forgive and Forget
Can you trust yourself to be completely perfect in every way while locked in a cage not of your own making?
If it’s you who has been a of bit of a plonker then find a way to apologise. If you been offered an apology, then accept it. Love and relationships are a two-way street.
Try Something New
Every day on lock down is time you can innovate, refresh, or learn new things. In professional services we often think about “billable hours” and when they slow down a certain panic sets in. Using “free hours” when there is time available is the source of efficiency, innovation and great product development. Use the time in lockdown wisely – you won’t get it back.
Are You Okay?
I wrote this blog so you can know that you can not only get through this time but can be better and stronger for the experience.
Look around yourself and see the blessings. Take that breath of unpolluted air, listen to the birds and enjoy the company you have.
Above all though ask yourself and those you love “Are you okay?” It may be the most important question you ever ask. The answer may well bless you for the rest of your life.
Improve manufacturing operations and cut costs by setting operational efficiency KPIs.
In the last 3 months the global economy has been turned on it’s head due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In light of this, manufacturers are faced with the pressures of producing more high-quality goods, with less money, time and resources. Regulations are becoming more stringent and competition is growing in a smaller market.
To achieve the goals of lean operation, industrial manufacturers need to constantly monitor, benchmark and improve.
KPIs can prove a valuable gauge of progress, helping manufacturers to set and achieve their business goals and maintain critical business resiliency.
1. Optimise maintenance schedules
Many manufacturers still operate preventative maintenance schedules. Preventative maintenance is costly because only 15% to 20% of all components fail after a predictable time. Reducing operational costs means approaching maintenance in a new way.
A predictive maintenance program – servicing machines based on need-based early stage notifications – is much more efficient than a Fixed Time Maintenance (FTM) Preventative Program.
This allows manufacturers to be proactive, rather than reactive when it comes to equipment repairs and operational downtime. They can make informed decisions, based on transparency and a pattern that is most suitable to their business.
Reduced costs and eliminated outages should be demonstrable when manufacturers transition to a predictive maintenance mode and track overall downtime.
2. Improve true downtime cost (TDC) and downtime percentage
Consider the true cost of unplanned downtime. Do you know what the cost of downtime is to your business? Decreasing downtime and improving operational efficiencies can save manufacturers millions of dollars.
By calculating your True Downtime Cost and showing measured improvements in this realm, you can illustrate saved time and money, as well as reduced waste and create a data-driven, quantifiable resiliency plan.
Understanding true costs can also help you to make cost justification within day-to-day management decisions.
3. Improve Rolled Throughput Yield (RTY)
RTY is the probability that a single unit can pass through a series of process steps free of defects. Acceptable Rolled Throughput Yield is dependent upon a very high individual first time yield for each process. It is the sum of the parts measurement that is most critical to overall operational efficiency.
RTY is a great operational efficiency KPI to track as it alerts manufacturers to the health of their entire operation, rolling all processes into a single measurement.
4. Maximizing capacity utilisation
Diminish the cost of owning and maintaining equipment by using equipment to its full capacity.
By measuring the output that is actually produced and comparing it to its potential maximum output, manufacturers can understand the efficiency of their operation. Increasing capacity utilisation increases overall efficiency.
An OEE score presents “an accurate picture of how effectively your manufacturing process is running. And, it makes it easy to track improvements in that process over time.”
Conclusion
These Operational Efficiency KPIs will give you an indication of the overall efficiency of your operation and a real sense of your resiliency needs.
Any downward trends in performance will require deeper analysis. Manufacturers should also look at processes, systems, and the performance of equipment.
With improved visibility and intelligent use of smart technologies throughout the plant, manufacturers can take a leap forward when boosting operational efficiency throughout the business. Using real-time data allows you to plan, in a quantifiable way, the need for a backup plan.
Talk to us to learn more about how energy insights can drive your energy and resilience strategy.
If you don’t know precisely how, when and where energy is being used across your business, how can you understand where your energy costs really lie, or the best opportunities to improve energy and operational performance?
Working together with Centrica Business Solutions, Total Utilities is the exclusive partner delivering the Energy Insight product solution to the New Zealand market. Using Centrica’s wireless sensor technology, you can monitor energy usage in real-time – right down to device and equipment level. When this information is relayed to our PowerRadarTM analysis platform, you can access the intelligence you need to develop a data-driven energy strategy.
The Power of IoT
Our Internet of Things (IoT) technology is providing the deep energy insights that uncover flexibility and value in your operations and generation assets. This is a ‘game changer’ in raising energy performance across all types of organisations – from manufacturing and leisure – to healthcare and education.
Energy Insight technology provides full visibility of energy usage across your site, or multiple sites – right down to individual device level. We attach self-powered, wireless sensors to equipment and processes, such as conveyor belts, lighting circuits, chillers, or any other energy consuming assets.
This instantly transmits real-time data to our cloud-based PowerRadar analytics and reporting platform. You can then access this intelligence to inform your decision making and improve efficiencies.
Deep energy insights
Hundreds of sensors, which can measure both heat and power consumption, can be installed within a few hours and won’t cause disruption to operations. Data provided by our IoT technology enables organisations to quickly identify and resolve energy waste. It can also pinpoint opportunities to reduce high peak-time energy costs by moderating consumption in these periods.
The biggest gains of IoT energy insights are often seen in improved operational efficiency and business resilience. By ensuring that critical equipment is operating optimally and preventing costly disruption, or even breakdown, large operational cost savings can be achieved. Continuity of operations is also assured, which is particularly beneficial in manufacturing environments.
The results of IoT energy optimisation
We’re seeing the positive results of our IoT enabled energy optimisation across all business sectors, including Progressive Enterprises New Zealand.
Join us on Monday as we discuss how the Internet of Things is changing Energy Management and how insights can support sustainable business. Register here.
