Richard Gardiner, Founder & Chairman of the Board at Total Utilities, shares his insights on the unfolding energy crisis in New Zealand. With years of industry experience, Richard delves into the causes, consequences, and future implications of this pressing issue.
Until six years ago NZ, was in the happy position of being self-sufficient for its electricity, natural gas, and LPG requirements.
Our electricity supply was already 80% to 85% renewable, based on a combination of hydroelectric, geothermal, solar, and wind power-based generation. An enviable position in an increasingly volatile world!
We were self-sufficient for our natural gas requirements too.
Overall, we were also self-sufficient when it came to LPG supplies – a net exporter for +/- six months of the year and a net importer for the rest of the year.
Seven years ago, the incoming Labour/Green Government banned all new offshore oil and gas exploration.
The background to this initiative is that political parties ranging from the Greens to ACT, all recognise that NZ is facing an ‘energy trilemma’. This trilemma centres on:
Sustainability considerations – decarbonisation in a climate change impacted world
Price and affordability considerations
Security of supply considerations
While the political parties disagree regarding the importance attached to specific components of the energy trilemma, they all agree that all three are vital to the wellbeing of our country.
Well-intentioned though the gas exploration ban may have been, its practical impact backfired badly on all three elements of the trilemma:
Sustainability negatively impacted – gas supplies already reduced by over a third with the resultant need that additional coal had to be imported for electricity generation at Huntly. Coal emits nearly twice as much carbon as natural gas on a kWh-for-kWh of energy delivered basis.
Electricity and natural gas wholesale and retail prices have rocketed, especially for time of use (TOU) business users.
While the four wholesale divisions of the big generator/retailers (gentailers) are making excellent profits, their retail divisions are not. Neither are the retail businesses of their smaller competitors like Electric Kiwi.
Security of supply considerations – the Winstone Pulp International example during the past week says it all as do the recent occasions when electricity supplies were very tight nationally. This should not happen in a First World country.
Compounding the above problems is the fact that:
Competition has largely collapsed in the current natural gas market. Amongst other things, previous major suppliers like Contact and Ongas have exited the market. Because of this, the option of importing liquified natural gas (LNG) is now being considered.
With LPG, an announcement during the past month confirmed that one of the major LPG suppliers is selling its LPG division to a competitor. Furthermore, as we are no longer self-sufficient for LPG supplies, NZ customers will be more exposed to international LPG price hikes, based on changes in the Saudi Aramco index and fluctuations in the NZD:USD exchange rate.
The implications of the above include:
Electricity and gas procurement is no longer a one-off exercise every two or three years. It is an ongoing process.
The contract review process needs to start much earlier, in terms of existing contract expiry dates, than used to be the case.
Merely signing a new three-year Supply Agreement is not necessarily the best thing to do now.
Opportunities may exist for a short-term supply arrangement to ‘buy time’ for signing up to a longer-term Supply Agreement, as and when a suitable opportunity occurs in the market.
With hydro-electricity accounting for 60% plus of total national electricity generation and our hydro-electric dams only having six or seven weeks storage capacity cover, there is always going to be a degree of volatility in our electricity supply. But this volatility has been significantly compounded since 2017 by our reduced fossil fuel-based generation and inadequate replacement renewable-based generation to ‘plug the gap’.
The bottom-line for electricity and natural gas/LPG business customers is that they need to adapt to the reality of drastically increased prices, tight supply and generally adverse market conditions.
Please contact us if you have any questions on the above.
New Zealand’s energy landscape is facing a perfect storm. With hydro storage at historic lows and natural gas production declining, energy prices are surging. As we turn to costly imported coal, the impact on electricity costs is significant. In the following article, Total Utilities Director Chris Hargreaves delves into these challenges and their implications for our energy future.
The New Zealand Electricity market relies heavily on hydroelectricity, which accounts for approximately 60% of total generation in most years. This is supplemented by other baseload generation sources that are available 24/7, including geothermal, natural gas and coal.
Despite New Zealand’s significant hydroelectric capacity, our water storage is limited, usually providing only six weeks of coverage, and often dropping below 30 days during winter. To address this, natural gas and coal are used to manage water storage and provide a top up to meet energy demand.
From a hydro storage perspective, May 2024 was the driest on record. And as of 22/07, total water storage has fallen to 31% of total capacity, which is around 55% of average levels for this time of year. In addition to this, our domestic production of natural gas has been steadily falling since 2018, meaning that natural gas is used less and less for electricity generation.
Why is this important? Because if natural gas is not available, we have to use coal. This carries a much higher marginal cost as we import coal from Indonesia, and costs associated with the emissions trading scheme are much higher than natural gas (for further insights on gas production and consumption and historical electricity risk curves check out Gas Industry Co and the Electricity Authority).
The Coal Cost Dilemma
While you might say, ‘great, we have an alternative fuel source to keep the lights on,’ the downside of using coal is that it sets the price of the electricity wholesale market and drives forward retail energy contract pricing higher for large commercial and industrial customers. Lower priced forms of electricity generation such as hydroelectricity then carry a scarcity premium as demand remains strong in a time when supply is extremely constrained.
The Electricity Authority has for several years stated that we have a competitive retail market environment. As of June 2024, there are 47 electricity trading companies in the New Zealand market. Most of these only supply residential customers or are extremely niche players supplying few electricity connections.
Big Four’s Influence: Market Control and Pricing
There are four major generators in New Zealand: Contact Energy, Genesis Energy, Mercury Energy and Meridian Energy (the big four). These four together produce about 90% of New Zealand’s electricity and supply around 80% of the retail market. They hold significant power( no pun intended!) in dictating terms to smaller independent retailers that do not have generation assets.
These independent retailers face challenges in securing competitive prices for upstream energy hedging to offer their customers. They must also meet substantial prudential cover requirements with the market, which increases with rising wholesale prices. This often means that when wholesale prices escalate, the independent generators are unable to quote pricing to customers as they cannot cover prudential requirements, or they are unable to buy upstream hedging. In essence, the big four can dictate how big the independent retailers get by the way that generation supply is managed.
Over the last 10 years, New Zealand’s baseload generation capacity has declined. Genesis has mothballed part of Huntly power station, which can run on either natural gas or coal. Contact has decommissioned the gas fired generator at Otahuhu B and is now using the gas-fired baseload component of Stratford very sparingly. Similarly, Mercury has decommissioned the gas-fired Southdown power station in Penrose.
New generation has been extremely slow to come into the market, with generators blaming the uncertainty surrounding Tiwai, which has resulted in systemic price increases. This has led to Transpower issuing warnings for the last three winters that electricity generation is struggling to meet demand. The result of this was a blackout in Hamilton during 2021 and a near miss, this year.
Although wind and solar projects are increasing, their intermittent nature fails to provide the continuous coverage needed during dry years, leaving a gap created by the reduced gas supply.
The infrastructure commission states that we have a major deficit and that to meet forecast demand, generation needs to more than double over the next 30 years. This is going to cost a significant amount of money when energy prices are at record highs which businesses are already struggling to absorb. Read ‘How is our infrastructure tracking,’ by the New Zealand Infrastructure Commission to find out more on this.
Coal will also be required in greater quantities and for much longer due to the forecast shortfall in gas production over the next 3 years.
MBIE markets manager Mike Hayward says,“New Zealand has used around 150 PJ of natural gas per year for the last two years. While New Zealand holds 8.7 years of natural gas in usable reserves, field operators only expect to extract up to 140 PJ each year for the next three years.” See this MBIE report for further details.
In 2017, we were procuring five-year fixed price contracts for large industrial customers at around $75/mWh (7.5c/kWh). Pricing obtained last week averaged $170/mWh for the period 01 Jan 2025 to 31 Dec 2029.
Investment Incentives: Why New Projects Are Stalled
However, with four major generator retailers controlling the delivery of significant new generation, there’s little incentive for them to invest in new projects. Instead, they continue to profit from long-paid-off assets.
Until competition emerges in the generation market, I struggle to see how the Electricity Authority can stand behind their claims of a competitive electricity sector.
Act Now: Contact Total Utilities
Navigate the changing energy landscape with confidence. Contact Total Utilities to explore customised solutions and implement an energy management plan today!
Is your current utility contract about to expire? Are you tempted to leave it until the last minute and see what the market has to offer? This could be a high-risk strategy for your business according to Total Utilities’ Director, Chris Hargreaves.
Chris explains, “Allowing your utility contract to expire or putting off securing a new contract until the last minute is not generally advisable, and can leave your business exposed to unnecessary risks and higher costs.”
The Risks of Waiting Too Long
“Waiting too long can lead to significantly higher utility pricing. Electricity prices are extremely volatile due to short-term issues such as hydro storage, so timing the negotiation of your contract plays a key role in the price that you get.
“Delaying until the last minute can leave you with fewer options and less favourable terms,” warns Chris.
“By acting early, you give yourself the best chance to negotiate terms that are advantageous for your business and to avoid any disruptions in service or unexpected cost increases.
“Waste contracts, in particular, are often very one-sided in favour of the supplier. If notice is not given within the applicable timeframes, rollover clauses could lock you into a new term with unfavourable conditions,” he adds.
Strategic planning and expert advice can help ensure you make the most informed decision for your utility procurement.
“I would suggest customers look at pricing around six months prior to their contract end date. That way, if a good offer is made, you can accept it. If not, you have time to review the market again before your contract ends. At the very least you will get a view on where prices are at, allowing you to budget accordingly,” explains Chris.
Choosing the Optimal Contract Term
The optimal term for your electricity, natural gas, LPG, and trade waste supply agreements depend on various factors, including market conditions and your business objectives.
“Longer-term contracts can provide price stability and potentially lower rates, while shorter-term agreements offer flexibility and the ability to adapt to changing market dynamics. However, these often come with higher costs and more risk that if market conditions don’t improve, you could pay more again in one or two years.”
Total Utilities procures a range of contract terms from suppliers and provides recommendations that weigh up short contract terms and long term price security with current market realities. Our goal is to ensure your utility contracts align with your business strategy and market conditions.
Shop Around
In addition to acting early, shopping around and comparing different offers is essential. “The utility market is competitive, and prices can vary significantly between providers,” Chris explains.
“By comparing offers, you can keep your current supplier honest and evaluate how their renewal offer stacks up in the market. At Total Utilities, we help our clients navigate this process to ensure they secure the most favourable deals.”
Proactive Procurement is Crucial
Total Utilities provides bundled procurement services with utility cost, consumption and carbon reporting. Even if you are currently in a fixed-term contract, becoming a Utility Insights client allows us to strike when opportunities arise in the market.
Total Utilities can assist you with:
– Proactive procurement: Timing is everything, and acting fast can mean better pricing.
– Identifying areas for potential savings: Regular tracking can reveal inefficiencies & opportunities for cost reduction.
– Predicting future utility needs: Accurate data helps in forecasting and planning.
– Improving operational processes: Reducing overhead expenses through better utility management.
– Preventing wastage: Avoid excessive utility usage.
– Establishing valuable metrics: Communicate utility usage effectively throughout your organisation.
– Making informed business decisions: Precise reporting supports strategic planning.
“Tracking these costs is not just about current savings but also about preparing for future needs and improving overall operational efficiency,” notes Chris.
Why Choose Total Utilities?
Total Utilities specialises in energy, gas, and waste procurement, leveraging over two decades of experience.
“We complete around 300 market reviews each year, closely monitoring market movements, government policies, and industry trends. This expertise allows us to provide informed and strategic advice tailored to your business needs,” says Chris.
“Our services are designed to help businesses like yours optimise their utility costs while ensuring reliable and efficient procurement. From contract negotiation to ongoing cost management, we offer comprehensive support,” he adds.
Find out more
– For personalised advice on your utility contracts or to explore our comprehensive utility management services, contact Total Utilities today.
Ready for cost-saving solutions? Hear directly from Joanne Gleeson, Office Support Manager at Rinnai NZ, as she shares how Total Utilities Management Group has streamlined contract negotiations and reduced costs for their utility needs since 2012.
‘Total Utilities has been assisting Rinnai NZ in negotiating our electricity/gas (both Natural and LPG) contracts since 2012.
Lately they have also assisted in re-negotiating our waste management contract and this is expected to greatly reduce costs going forward.
Service we receive from Chris Hargreaves, Linda MacIver, and all the team is efficient and professional. It simplifies the process of re-negotiating fresh contracts in an everchanging market. The fee structure Total Utilities offers has flexible options to suit.
The whole process is conducted in a most time manner, from the reminder of terminating contracts coming up, through to receiving the recommendations for renewal.
The contracts provided are clearly tabled and with detailed supporting narrative for us to consider and make the best decisions.
Total Utilities then liaises to assist in the changeover to the new provider and minimises any disruption to our business. The new contract signed by both parties is forwarded to me for reference.
I recommend their expertise to anyone looking to secure utilities contracts that offer the best fit for a company.’
Joanne Gleeson, Rinnai NZ
Rinnai is a market leader in New Zealand, supplying high-quality home heating, heat pumps, water heating, and commercial heating and cooling products.
Contact Total Utilities to find out how we can help your business cut utility costs and create a more sustainable future.
Total Utilities has taken a pioneering step towards fostering sustainable energy by spearheading the landmark collaboration between Manawa Energy and Southern Spars, an iconic New Zealand company known for its cutting-edge marine spars and rigging.
The project primarily revolved around Total Utilities managing Southern Spars electricity Request for Proposal (RFP) while working in tandem with the selected energy provider, Manawa Energy.
While Southern Spars has been a longstanding procurement client of Total Utilities, this particular energy review was unique as it marked a departure from traditional services and encompassed additional negotiation concerning New Zealand Energy Certificates (NZECS, formally known as renewable energy certificates or RECs).
With a strong sustainability focus, Manawa Energy aimed to complement Southern Spars’ electricity supply with NZECS, presenting an exciting opportunity for Southern Spars to become the inaugural client of Manawa Energy’s Energy Certificate program.
NZ-ECs are tradable certificates, tracking and authenticating the production and consumption of renewable energy. They enable businesses or individuals to reduce the reported carbon emissions associated with their electricity consumption, and support bringing new renewable energy production online, without the need to consume it directly at source.
BraveTrace, which operates the NZECS (New Zealand Energy Certificate System), validates that the electricity consumed by Southern Spars is accurately matched and verified against the renewable electricity produced by Manawa Energy.
Bridging the Gap: Total Utilities’ Innovative Solutions
However, a challenge emerged for Manawa Energy: their equipment required certification before providing NZECS to Southern Spars, while Southern Spars’ current electricity contract was nearing its end. Total Utilities was able to step in to bridge this supply gap by providing third party NZECS until Manawa Energy was able to assume full supply.
“As an early participant in BraveTrace’s (previously Certified Energy) NZ Energy Certificate System, Total Utilities can act as an independent NZECS broker,” explained Total Utilities’ Manager Director, Jonathan Gardiner.
“Total Utilities facilitated NZECS transactions, ensuring uninterrupted energy supply while accommodating timing constraints. Our bridging contracts provided a temporary solution, enabling Southern Spars to transition smoothly to renewable energy procurement from the commencement of the new contract,” he added.
BraveTrace’s new CEO, Shaun Goldsbury, enthusiastically celebrates this major collaboration, “Manawa Energy is one of Aotearoa New Zealand’s largest renewable energy generators and we are delighted to welcome them to the BraveTrace network.
“We are particularly proud of our longstanding relationship with Total Utilities and the exceptional support they have provided to Southern Spars in advancing sustainability practices in the sailing world.”
Through careful coordination, Total Utilities managed the NZECS exchange between Manawa Energy and Southern Spars, ensuring the partnership progressed seamlessly.
Manawa Energy has since registered the Kaimai hydroelectric power scheme as a production device and was able to meet Southern Spars’ needs for the 2024 production year.
The Kaimai scheme is significant in Manawa Energy’s generation portfolio as it not only provides renewable electricity to the Bay of Plenty, but also opens up a superb, accessible recreation area popular for fishing, kayaking, picnicking and running.
Water is released through the Lake McLaren Dam up to 26 days a year, providing high flows for white water kayakers from the Kaimai Canoe Club, and local white water rafting businesses.
Navigating complex utility landscapes
“This partnership underscores our dedication to sustainability and innovation,” emphasised Jonathan. “We’re committed to overcoming obstacles and driving progress in utility management.”
It was a great project to work on, and we thoroughly enjoyed the problem-solving discussions with George Anyon at Southern Spars and Glenn Webley at Manawa Energy. “All three parties had to think creatively and flexibly to get the job done,” he added.
Total Utilities’ successful collaboration underscores its ability to navigate complex utility management landscapes. As the industry evolves, it remains at the forefront, leading the charge toward a more sustainable future.
For more information about Total Utilities and their sustainable initiatives, contact us today.
Total Utilities Director, Chris Hargreaves, offers a concise overview of the challenges facing New Zealand’s gas market, as well as practical advice for business customers.
For the past two years, our industry has been sounding the alarm bells about an impending gas supply crisis. However, it’s only recently that the media has begun to pay attention.
Gas plays a crucial role in various sectors, particularly electricity generation and food production. Dwindling domestic gas production has increased the need to import coal for electricity generation. This has pushed industrial and commercial pricing skywards, leaving many of our clients asking how to remain competitive with energy input costs going through the roof.
Securing Contracted Supply – The Urgency of Early Action
The Gas Industry Company is recommending that industrial and commercial customers must take proactive measures.
We agree and strongly advise clients to consider renewing contracts early, due to the likelihood of constrained gas supplies throughout the decade.
By re-contracting early, businesses can mitigate the risk of facing tight supply and demand conditions, which will significantly inflate prices.
Concerns Amplified by Reports
A recent report from the Gas Industry Company paints a concerning picture of gas production levels falling below previous forecasts. With production output falling faster than expected, gas availability will become constrained faster than expected.
Insufficient gas is available to meet contracted demand, raising valid concerns about future reliability. The upward trend in gas prices over the past five years only adds to these worries.
Impact on Consumers
Many businesses across the primary and food production sectors rely on natural gas as part of their production processes.
Moving to alternative energy sources is extremely difficult as biomass supplies in NZ are very tight, and local electricity grid operators don’t necessarily have enough spare capacity to electrify industrial plants.
This is leading some customers to look at large LPG installations as LPG is an import commodity. However, this also has its limits, as port terminal storage for LPG being imported is in short supply.
Our clients are asking us, ‘why have political decisions been made to wind down our gas industry when there are no realistic alternatives?’
Policy Uncertainty Adds Complexity
Policy uncertainty, particularly with the ban on offshore oil and gas exploration implemented in 2018, adds another layer of complexity.
While efforts are underway to reverse this ban, concerns persist over potential policy reversals and their implications for energy investments and supply reliability.
The ban also saw industry expertise move offshore and planned investment curtailed. It’s unclear whether revising the ban will kickstart the industry back into life, as gas producers need long guarantees to ensure they recoup exploration and drilling costs.
Heed Warnings & Weather the Storm
In the face of mounting challenges and uncertainties, the imperative for action cannot be overstated. It’s not merely about addressing immediate concerns but also about shaping a sustainable energy landscape for the future.
By heeding the insights provided and implementing proactive measures without delay, businesses can not only weather the storm but also emerge stronger and more resilient in the evolving energy market.
For personalised advice and insights on managing your utilities efficiently and effectively, Contact Total Utilities today.
