New Zealand’s energy landscape is facing a perfect storm. With hydro storage at historic lows and natural gas production declining, energy prices are surging. As we turn to costly imported coal, the impact on electricity costs is significant. In the following article, Total Utilities Director Chris Hargreaves delves into these challenges and their implications for our energy future.

The New Zealand Electricity market relies heavily on hydroelectricity, which accounts for approximately 60% of total generation in most years. This is supplemented by other baseload generation sources that are available 24/7, including geothermal, natural gas and coal.

Despite New Zealand’s significant hydroelectric capacity, our water storage is limited, usually providing only six weeks of coverage, and often dropping below 30 days during winter. To address this, natural gas and coal are used to manage water storage and provide a top up to meet energy demand.

From a hydro storage perspective, May 2024 was the driest on record. And as of 22/07, total water storage has fallen to 31% of total capacity, which is around 55% of average levels for this time of year. In addition to this, our domestic production of natural gas has been steadily falling since 2018, meaning that natural gas is used less and less for electricity generation. 

Why is this important? Because if natural gas is not available, we have to use coal. This carries a much higher marginal cost as we import coal from Indonesia, and costs associated with the emissions trading scheme are much higher than natural gas (for further insights on gas production and consumption and historical electricity risk curves check out Gas Industry Co and the Electricity Authority). 

The Coal Cost Dilemma

While you might say, ‘great, we have an alternative fuel source to keep the lights on,’ the downside of using coal is that it sets the price of the electricity wholesale market and drives forward retail energy contract pricing higher for large commercial and industrial customers. Lower priced forms of electricity generation such as hydroelectricity then carry a scarcity premium as demand remains strong in a time when supply is extremely constrained.

The Electricity Authority has for several years stated that we have a competitive retail market environment. As of June 2024, there are 47 electricity trading companies in the New Zealand market. Most of these only supply residential customers or are extremely niche players supplying few electricity connections.

Big Four’s Influence: Market Control and Pricing

There are four major generators in New Zealand: Contact Energy, Genesis Energy, Mercury Energy and Meridian Energy (the big four). These four together produce about 90% of New Zealand’s electricity and supply around 80% of the retail market. They hold significant power( no pun intended!) in dictating terms to smaller independent retailers that do not have generation assets.

These independent retailers face challenges in securing competitive prices for upstream energy hedging to offer their customers. They must also meet substantial prudential cover requirements with the market, which increases with rising wholesale prices. This often means that when wholesale prices escalate, the independent generators are unable to quote pricing to customers as they cannot cover prudential requirements, or they are unable to buy upstream hedging. In essence, the big four can dictate how big the independent retailers get by the way that generation supply is managed.

Over the last 10 years, New Zealand’s baseload generation capacity has declined. Genesis has mothballed part of Huntly power station, which can run on either natural gas or coal. Contact has decommissioned the gas fired generator at Otahuhu B and is now using the gas-fired baseload component of Stratford very sparingly. Similarly, Mercury has decommissioned the gas-fired Southdown power station in Penrose.

New generation has been extremely slow to come into the market, with generators blaming the uncertainty surrounding Tiwai, which has resulted in systemic price increases. This has led to Transpower issuing warnings for the last three winters that electricity generation is struggling to meet demand. The result of this was a blackout in Hamilton during 2021 and a near miss, this year. 

Although wind and solar projects are increasing, their intermittent nature fails to provide the continuous coverage needed during dry years, leaving a gap created by the reduced gas supply.

The infrastructure commission states that we have a major deficit and that to meet forecast demand, generation needs to more than double over the next 30 years. This is going to cost a significant amount of money when energy prices are at record highs which businesses are already struggling to absorb. Read ‘How is our infrastructure tracking,’ by the New Zealand Infrastructure Commission to find out more on this.

Coal will also be required in greater quantities and for much longer due to the forecast shortfall in gas production over the next 3 years.

MBIE markets manager Mike Hayward says,“New Zealand has used around 150 PJ of natural gas per year for the last two years. While New Zealand holds 8.7 years of natural gas in usable reserves, field operators only expect to extract up to 140 PJ each year for the next three years.” See this MBIE report for further details.

In 2017, we were procuring five-year fixed price contracts for large industrial customers at around $75/mWh (7.5c/kWh). Pricing obtained last week averaged $170/mWh for the period 01 Jan 2025 to 31 Dec 2029.

Investment Incentives: Why New Projects Are Stalled

However, with four major generator retailers controlling the delivery of significant new generation, there’s little incentive for them to invest in new projects. Instead, they continue to profit from long-paid-off assets. 

Until competition emerges in the generation market, I struggle to see how the Electricity Authority can stand behind their claims of a competitive electricity sector.

Act Now: Contact Total Utilities

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